Excellent article in the Sunday Tribune on what would happen if the local election results were replicated in the general election. It’s written by Shane Coleman and Conor McMorrow and goes through every constituency in the country, available here. It predicts that Fine Gael would end up with 69 seats, and is good enough to say that I would win in Dublin Central.
The analysis assumes that ‘big names’ would not hugely influence voting patterns, so there is an obvious weakness in the analysis which the authors acknowledge. That said this kind of analysis is impossible unless you rule out these effects. It’s good fun, informative and worth a look. It’s the first analysis that I’ve read which suggests that my friend Jerry Buttimer will take a third seat for Fine Gael in Cork South Central! Couldn’t agree more!