The Poll

25th September, 2009

It was at this point in the last Lisbon campaign that the train came off the tracks. Things appear different now. Today’s MRBI show the Yes side with a 15 point lead (excluding don’t knows). Other figures that I’ve seen back this up.


I’ve done a lot of canvassing for the Treaty. I spent last night down in East Wall. A few things are apparent to me now.


Firstly, I’ve met a lot of people who voted No who are now voting Yes. I haven’t met anyone who was a Yes, that is now a No.


Secondly, the level of understanding of the Treaty is higher. But more to the point people feel that they know more. The Referendum Commission have done a far better job in this campaign.


Finally, the minimum wage claim by Coir has hit home. I’ve spent a lot of time rebutting this claim. It’s a real lesson in how a targetted lie can strike home in a campaign. At this stage, though, most people know that thethreat of unemployment is a far bigger danger to wage levels than the Lisbon Treaty.


If the referedum was today I’d be hopeful of a Yes vote. But it’s still a week to go. So just need to keep at it.


Primetime last night was great. Best moment for me was Pat Cox pointing out that the Lisbon guarantees had the same validity as the Belfast Agreement.  A wonderful moment. Worst moment on the show was Miriam O’Callaghan repeating the untrue claim that the Lavall case could happen in Ireland. It legally could not.